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Currency trends and volatility
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CT-November 2006-5
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Volatility can tell you a lot about how a certain currency behaves - if you're ready to hear the unexpected truth.
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Detailed Description
Volatility is at once one of the more fascinating, useful and misunderstood topics in finance. The fascination stems from its ephemeral nature. Volatility is the markets cost of insuring against uncertain events arriving at uncertain times with uncertain impacts. Risk is quantifiable; uncertainty is not. But the world is an uncertain place, and thus we must hedge ourselves the best we can.
Why is volatility misunderstood? Too many people view a time series of volatility as if it were a continuous process, such as a stock or bond price. It is not an asset, attempts by various exchanges to make it one notwithstanding. Volatility has no natural return such as a coupon or dividend. At best, volatility is an attribute of other asset classes, not an asset class per se.
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