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Follow-through or fake-out: Testing 20-day highs and lows
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AT-April 2006-7
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Should you trade or fade 20-day price breakouts? Many traders monitor 20-day breakouts, but these events aren't necessarily trade signals. This analysis investigates helpful breakout patterns in the S&P 500 tracking stock (SPY) since 1993.
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Detailed Description
Market Pulse: Stock market patterns and tendencies, Vol. 1
Breakouts occur when price moves out of an established trading range or pattern, or past some other kind of support or resistance level, such as a 20 or 40day high or low. Breakouts have traditionally been interpreted as signs of price momentum in the direction of the breakout: If price breaks out to a new high, it is likely to continue rising, and if it breaks out to a new low, more selling is likely to follow.
The significance of a breakout is typically related to the perceived magnitude of the support or resistance being broken i.e., a push above a 40day high is seen as more meaningful than a move above a 10day high. However, simple testing shows breakouts above or below such wellknown levels are hardly guaranteed to follow through.
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