Just about every indicator fails some of the time. In fact, just about every indicator fails about half of the time. And to add insult to injury, an indicator’s optimum parameter value changes over time.

Because indicators are so unreliable, traders typically use two or more in a confirmation approach and hope together they overcome their individual unreliability. But if neither is valid in the first place, using two wrong indicators won’t make one right trading decision.

To overcome that problem, we often use fundamentals — but these can consist of stories we believe (or don’t) for all the wrong reasons.