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Japan: Rising Sun or just another day?
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CT-May 2006-3
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Things seems to be picking up for Japan after a long malaise, but the countrys economy and currency arent necessarily out of the woods yet.
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Detailed Description
Japan is emerging from an economic period comparable to the U.S. Great Depression. The gradual adjustment to monetary and fiscal policies has already begun: Tax increases and a reduction of bond issuance are already in the works, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signaled an end to its "quantitative easing strategy," under which it provided something on the magnitude of five to six times the amount of liquidity Japanese banks required. Overnight interest rates continue to be near zero, although there are widespread expectations the BOJ will deliver a first rate hike this summer.
This assumes the normalization of the Japanese business cycle. The economy is enjoying sustained growth and is expected to be among the fastest growing of the major industrialized countries this year. Corporate profits are near record levels and the stock market is at 14year highs. Commercial land prices in Japans three largest metropolitan areas are rising for the first time in 15 years. The improved macroeconomic performance has given rise to the belief that "Japan is back.
The real situation is more complicated and, in many ways, rather than heralding the return of the Rising Sun, suggests it is just another day in Japan.
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