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Lies, damn lies, and statistics
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AT-June 2007-9
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The market is full of statistics and other economic indicators. But which ones provide an accurate indication of the economy, and which ones can only be used as part of the equation?
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Detailed Description
The markets have a newfound obsession with statistics. Just five years ago, economic statistics engaged the market only two or three times a month. Major economic indicators in the U.S. such as trade balance or unemployment would routinely grab the speculative attention of the market and the occasional surprise results made for some remarkable volatility, especially with the U.S. dollar.
More recently, however, traders have begun keeping close tabs on a much larger group of numbers, and many are using these "secondary" statistics as they once did the primary ones as trading points and signposts of economic direction.
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