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Short-term trends in the NZD/USD pair
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CT-June 2008-5
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Analyzing the New Zealand dollars price run characteristics reveals the simplest patterns may have the most promise in trading.
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Detailed Description
Despite a slump in early 2008, the New Zealand dollar (NZD), or "kiwi," has been on a long uptrend vs. the U.S. dollar, making an all-time high as recently as January.
This analysis explores the price behavior of the New Zealand dollar/U.S. dollar pair (NZD/USD) from May 3, 2004 (closing price of $0.6255) through April 30, 2008 (closing price of $0.7819); a total of 1,041 trading days. During this period the USD lost 25 percent relative to the NZD. The goal is to determine whether the kiwi dollar displays any patterns regarding the length or size of its short-term price thrusts i.e., runs of consecutive higher or lower daily prices.
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