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The four-percent solution
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AT-June 2009-1
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Boosting savings to increase investment will do nothing but exacerbate our problems.
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Detailed Description
At its core, the financial crisis and steep economic downturn are proverbial chickens coming home to roost. To change metaphors, it is time for Americans to pay the piper for years of living beyond their means. To what extent have they done so? There is a generally agreed-upon metric that measures this gap the current account deficit, which is a little more than 4 percent of GDP.
However, this assessment is disturbing in its simplicity. It places the blame for the crisis on American households. It seems that with roughly three million people laid off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers through February 2009, and many of the fortunately employed facing pay cuts, average Americans are more victim than culprit of this crisis. Doesnt the problem have something to do with the incentive structure in the financial sector that encouraged excessive leverage? Isnt this crisis inconceivable without the incredible leverage and risks that banks took with OPM other peoples money?
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