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The yen, the carry trade, and the BOJ
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CT-April 2007-1
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The Japanese economy isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but did the Bank of Japan jump the gun when it raised interest rates in February? And what effect might that have on the yen?
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Detailed Description
The Feb. 27 plunge in global equities sparked a massive collapse in the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen rate. In one trading day, the dollar/yen lost nearly three points, or more than 2.2 percent (Figure 1). Into early March, subsequent days saw the continuing deterioration of the currency pair. Why was dollar/yen so susceptible to the domino effect of worldwide equity declines? Answering this question requires analyzing the key market factors driving action in the yen heading into the second quarter, and pondering whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) moved too early with its February rate hike.
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