Futures spreads tell stories that conventional price charts do not even hint at. Throughout most of 2005, crude oil and gasoline prices have trended steadily higher. The news, and not just the financial news, has been full of talk about growing demand, shrinking supplies, the impact of hurricanes, and limited U.S. refining capacity. Clearly, if demand is strong, supplies short, and refiners stretched to their capacity limits, prices should rise.

Yet the futures spreads seem to have been telling a different story, one to warm the hearts of contrarians at least those savvy enough to trade crude oil and gasoline calendar spreads.