What really has been driving the U.S. dollar, if not the economy? Also, once the U.S. pulls out of recession — perhaps as early as third or fourth quarter of this year, if you believe the more optimistic forecasts — will the bear once again exert downward pressure on the greenback? Let’s look back at the bear market that began in 2002 and then examine current economic conditions and what lies ahead for the U.S. economy and the dollar.