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Howard L. Simons
What drives the dollar index?
CT-January 2006-7
Market watchers often point to deficits and interest-rate differentials to explain the dollar's behavior, but analysis shows these supposed market factors might not be in the driver's seat after all.
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Howard Simons: Advanced Currency Concepts, Vol. 1

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story might be good advice in journalism, but it is inexcusable in the financial markets. How many other fields have such a wealth of readily available facts?

Yet market myths and legends abound. Consider the primary one about the U.S. dollar that its long-term depreciation is connected to the so-called twin deficits of the current account and the federal budget. But is there any evidence supporting this conclusion?

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